Desarrollo de una fórmula predictiva de mortalidad por sepsis/sepsis severa en la UCI
Development of a mortality prediction formula due to sepsis/severe sepsis in a medical intensive care unit.
Mohan A, Shrestha P, Guleria R, Pandey RM, Wig N.
Lung India 2015;32:313-9
Abstract
Background: Although sepsis is one of the leading causes of mortality in hospitalized patients, information regarding early predictive factors for mortality and morbidity is limited. Materials and Methods: Patients fulfilling the Infectious Disease Society of America criteria of sepsis within the medical intensive care unit (ICU) were included over two years. Apart from baseline hematological, biochemical, and metabolic parameters, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II), Simplified Acute Physiology Score II and III (SAPS II and SAPS III), and Sequential Organ Function Assessment (SOFA) scores were calculated on day 1 of admission. Patients were followed till death or discharge from the ICU. Results: One hundred patients were enrolled over two years (54% males). The overall mortality was 53%, (69.5% in females, 38.8% in males (P < 0.01). Mortality was 65.7%, 55.7%, and 33.3% in patients with septic shock, severe sepsis, and sepsis, respectively. Patients who died were significantly older than the survivors (mean age, 57.37 ± 20.42 years and 44.29 ± 15.53 years respectively, P < 0.01). Nonsurvivors were significantly more anemic and had higher APACHE II, SAPS II, SAPS III, and SOFA scores. The presence of acute respiratory distress syndrome and renal dysfunction were associated with higher mortality (75% and 70.2%, respectively). There was no significant difference in the duration of mechanical ventilation or ICU stay between survivors and nonsurvivors. On multivariate analysis, significant predictors of mortality with odds ratio greater than 2 included the presence of anemia, SAPS II score greater than 35, SAPS III score greater than 47, and SOFA score greater than 6 at day 1 of admission. Conclusion: Several demographic and laboratory parameters as well as composite critical illness scoring systems are reliable early predictors of mortality in sepsis. A sepsis mortality prediction formula (AIIMS Sepsis Score) based on SAPS II, SAPS III, and SOFA scores and hemoglobin has greater predictive power than these scoring methods individually. Routine use of critical illness scoring systems and a composite mortality prediction formula may provide useful early prognostic information in sepsis/severe sepsis.
Keywords: Mortality, scoring, sepsis
PDF
|
Métodos moleculares convencionales y moléculas biomarcadores en la detección de la septicemia.
Conventional, molecular methods and biomarkers molecules in detection of septicemia. Arabestani MR, Rastiany S, Kazemi S, Mousavi SM. Adv Biomed Res 2015;4:120 Abstract Sepsis is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in hospitalized patients worldwide and based on studies, 30-40% of all cases of severe sepsis and septic shock results from the blood stream infections (BSIs). Identifying of the disease, performing laboratory tests, and consequently treatment are factors that required for optimum management of BSIs. In addition, applying precise and immediate identification of the etiologic agent is a prerequisite for specific antibiotic therapy of pathogen and thereby decreasing mortality rates. The diagnosis of sepsis is difficult because clinical signs of sepsis often overlap with other noninfectious cases of systemic inflammation. BSIs are usually diagnosed by performing a series of techniques such as blood cultures, polymerase chain reaction-based methods, and biomarkers of sepsis. Extremely time-consuming even to take up to several days is a major limitation of conventional methods. In addition, yielding false-negative results due to fastidious and slow-growing microorganisms and also in case of antibiotic pretreated samples are other limitations. In comparison, molecular methods are capable of examining a blood sample obtained from suspicious patient with BSI and gave the all required information to prescribing antimicrobial therapy for detected bacterial or fungal infections immediately. Because of an emergency of sepsis, new methods are being developed. In this review, we discussed about the most important sepsis diagnostic methods and numbered the advantage and disadvantage of the methods in detail. Keywords: Biomarkers, blood-culture, molecular methods, sepsis PDF
|
Valor pronóstico de la procalcitonina en adultos sépticos. Revisión sistemática y meta-análisis
Prognostic Value of Procalcitonin in Adult Patients with Sepsis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.
Liu D, Su L, Han G, Yan P, Xie L.
PLoS One. 2015 Jun 15;10(6):e0129450. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0129450. eCollection 2015.Abstract
Procalcitonin (PCT) has been widely investigated for its prognostic value in septic patients. However, studies have produced conflicting results. The purpose of the present meta-analysis is to explore the diagnostic accuracy of a single PCT concentration and PCT non-clearance in predicting all-cause sepsis mortality. We searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Knowledge and the Cochrane Library. Articles written in English were included. A 2 × 2 contingency table was constructed based on all-cause mortality and PCT level or PCT non-clearance in septic patients. Two authors independently evaluated study eligibility and extracted data. The diagnostic value of PCT in predicting prognosis was determined using a bivariate meta-analysis model. We used the Q-test and I2 index to test heterogeneity. Twenty-three studies with 3,994 patients were included. An elevated PCT level was associated with a higher risk of death. The pooled relative risk (RR) was 2.60 (95% confidence interval (CI), 2.05-3.30) using a random-effects model (I2 = 63.5%). The overall area under the summary receiver operator characteristic (SROC) curve was 0.77 (95% CI, 0.73-0.80), with a sensitivity and specificity of 0.76 (95% CI, 0.67-0.82) and 0.64 (95% CI, 0.52-0.74), respectively. There was significant evidence of heterogeneity for the PCT testing time (P = 0.020). Initial PCT values were of limited prognostic value in patients with sepsis. PCT non-clearance was a prognostic factor of death in patients with sepsis. The pooled RR was 3.05 (95% CI, 2.35-3.95) using a fixed-effects model (I2 = 37.9%). The overall area under the SROC curve was 0.79 (95% CI, 0.75-0.83), with a sensitivity and specificity of 0.72 (95% CI, 0.58-0.82) and 0.77 (95% CI, 0.55-0.90), respectively. Elevated PCT concentrations and PCT non-clearance are strongly associated with all-cause mortality in septic patients. Further studies are needed to define the optimal cut-off point and the optimal definition of PCT non-clearance for accurate risk assessment.
PDF
|
|
